Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
