How This Strange Campaign Redefined the Typical Coach of the Year Mould.
Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.
On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.
But this year's race is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and longtime also-rans improving together. In an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other elite candidates.
This is how the ideal vote could look.
5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5
Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.
Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic from broken plays.
The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.
During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal campaign!
The area where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short here.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.
What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.
Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.
Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.
The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3
Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.
Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.
Still
